Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress

Key Points:

• Donald Trump’s net approval rating has dropped to a record low of -23.0, with 60.4% disapproving of his performance, according to Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls. His approval on key issues like immigration, trade, the economy, and inflation has also declined.
• Democrats are favored to gain control of both the US Senate and House of Representatives in the November 3 midterm elections, with Silver’s forecast model giving them a 69% chance for the Senate and 91% chance for the House.
• The ongoing Iran war and its economic impact, particularly rising petrol prices and inflation, could lead to significant Republican losses if the disruption continues until the midterms; however, if petrol prices fall before the elections, Republicans may perform better and possibly retain Senate control.
• Democrats currently lead in key Senate races in traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, contributing to their favored status for Senate control, while Republicans face challenges in Nebraska and Kansas.
• Economic indicators show some volatility in petrol prices and oil markets, with recent decreases suggesting potential relief before the midterms, and the US stock market remains relatively strong compared to pre-Iran war levels, factors that could influence voter sentiment.