Ukraine Can Turn Imminent Peril to Its Advantage

Key Points:

• Since late July, Russia has intensified long-range missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian population centers and infrastructure, with plans to target energy and water supplies this winter to break Ukraine’s economy and society.
• U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal to lift sanctions on Russian diesel and urged Ukraine to suspend strikes on Russian oil refineries, signaling a shift toward a mutual energy cease-fire that could help contain the war.
• The U.S. and Europe could leverage Ukraine's ability to target Russian military assets, such as missile launchers, by facilitating technologies like Starlink access and providing advanced weaponry, thereby pressuring Russia to agree to an aerial cease-fire.
• Strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses, particularly through Patriot missile interceptors, and accelerating EU financial support are critical to helping Kyiv withstand Russia’s intensified winter campaign.
• Coordinated diplomatic and military efforts by the U.S. and European partners, combined with targeted pressure on Russia, may compel President Putin to reconsider his strategy and agree to a tactical aerial cease-fire, providing Ukraine with vital respite to regroup.