Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi foils Russia’s plan to encircle the Donbas, ISW analysis shows

Key Points:

• Ukrainian forces have successfully disrupted Russia's plan to encircle and occupy the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk region by dismantling the northern arm of the Russian pincer movement near Lyman, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
• Ukraine's counter-offensive, Operation Vivaldi, liberated between 125 and 176 square kilometers of territory in mid- to late September, forcing Russian units onto the defensive and preserving key supply routes in the Lyman area.
• The collapse of the northern pincer constitutes a significant operational failure for Russia, limiting its ability to threaten Ukrainian defenses and forcing a reliance on slower infantry tactics that have not achieved rapid advances.
• ISW challenges Russian claims of territorial gains in September, finding that Russia actually experienced a net retreat of about 175 square kilometers, and estimates that Russia controls no more than 81% of Donetsk region, contradicting President Putin’s claim of 89%.
• The institute highlights a culture of dishonesty within the Russian military command, suggesting that Putin's reported figures may be either knowingly false or based on fabricated frontline data.