Ultra-Orthodox parties break with Netanyahu but know they have nowhere else to go

Key Points:

• Israel's ultra-Orthodox community faces a crisis as their historic blanket exemption from IDF service has expired, and the government has failed to pass a new draft exemption law, leaving young yeshiva students vulnerable to arrest as draft evaders.
• Rabbi Dov Lando, a spiritual leader of the ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction, called for early elections, citing no confidence in Prime Minister Netanyahu and dissatisfaction with his handling of the exemption law, which Netanyahu is unable to pass due to a narrow coalition majority.
• Ultra-Orthodox parties are reconsidering their political alliances, distancing themselves from Netanyahu and exploring cooperation with center-left parties, though this risks alienating their right-wing voter base, which remains loyal to Netanyahu and opposes leftist policies.
• Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri has pushed for moving elections to early or mid-September to capitalize on the High Holidays when ultra-Orthodox voter engagement is highest, aiming to preserve ultra-Orthodox political strength amid the draft exemption impasse.
• Until the Knesset is dissolved and elections held, ultra-Orthodox parties plan to boycott the Netanyahu coalition on most legislation, except for key issues like weakening the attorney general's power, aligning with Netanyahu's judicial overhaul agenda despite their current conflict over the draft law.