UN warns of potential paramilitary offensive in strategic Sudan city

Key Points:

• Paramilitary attacks by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the strategic city of El Obeid have raised international concerns about potential mass violence, recalling the deadly 2023 RSF assault on El Fasher that killed over 6,000 people.
• El Obeid, a key city on Sudan’s main east-west road, is vital for controlling access to the capital Khartoum; recent RSF drone strikes have targeted civilian infrastructure, causing severe shortages of food, water, and health services.
• The RSF aims to retake El Obeid to regain control over supply routes and threaten Khartoum again, but experts caution that sustaining a siege would be costly and the city's fall depends on military dynamics between the RSF and Sudanese army.
• Despite the RSF's reduced manpower and ongoing intertribal fighting, they have deployed air defense systems and continue to launch offensives, while the Sudanese army, equipped with drones, is focused on defending El Obeid and the surrounding corridor.
• The United Nations and international actors have urged halting any offensive to protect civilians, emphasizing the urgent need for safe evacuation routes as drone attacks and potential reprisals put residents at grave risk.