US-Iran deal leaves Qatar on top

Key Points:

• The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is a short-term diplomatic agreement expected to last 60 days, during which the US will lift its naval blockade, Iran will allow free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire will be observed, but tensions are likely to resume afterward.
• Israel views the deal as disappointing since it defers the nuclear issue, does not require Iran to stop funding terrorist groups or halt its missile development, and allows key Iranian regime figures to consolidate power.
• Qatar emerges as a significant beneficiary in the Arab world, maintaining its influence over US policy and the jihadist axis, while other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain skeptical of US intentions and prefer diplomatic restraint.
• Lebanon is the biggest loser, as the memorandum has led to a reduction in Israeli strikes and partial population return, but has also limited Israel's ability to act against Hezbollah, thereby strengthening Iran’s indirect influence through Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• The inclusion of Lebanon in the memorandum has undermined Lebanese officials who favored direct negotiations with Israel, as the indirect Iranian channel has made more progress on Lebanon’s demands than Washington’s direct involvement.