US-Israeli strikes didn't topple Iran's leadership. Now it must navigate talks to end the war

Key Points:

• Iran's leadership has not collapsed despite the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top figures by U.S.-Israeli strikes; a politburo-like Supreme National Security Council now appears to hold central authority.
• The council, including civilian and Revolutionary Guard officials, is united for now but faces internal divisions over how much to concede in negotiations with the U.S., as Pakistani mediators prepare for new talks.
• Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, parliament speaker and veteran insider with ties across factions, has emerged as the chief negotiator and a potential bridge-builder between hardliners and reformists.
• Iran aims for a comprehensive peace deal to end U.S. attacks but remains firm on its nuclear program rights; economic hardship and sanctions pressure may push the regime toward concessions to ensure its survival.
• Recent conflicting statements about reopening the Strait of Hormuz highlight underlying disagreements within Iran’s leadership, reflecting tensions between diplomatic and military positions on engagement with the U.S.