US Recession Risks Begin to Rise as War Dims Economic Outlook
Bloomberg.com • • general
Key Points:
- Wall Street analysts are lowering their economic growth forecasts for the US in 2024 due to the impact of the Iran war and rising oil prices.
- Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 30%, citing surging energy costs.
- The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026, up from an earlier forecast of 4.4%.
- Inflation expectations have been revised upward, with firms now anticipating around 3% inflation this year instead of 2%, which may reduce disposable income and constrain job growth.
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