Vivek Ramaswamy’s Amy Acton ad could cost the GOP the Senate.

Key Points:

• Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy released a highly controversial ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged birth mother accusing her of lying about childhood sexual abuse, sparking widespread condemnation and distancing from prominent Ohio Republicans; this ad risks backfiring and potentially impacting the closely contested Ohio Senate race.
• The Alaska Senate race remains uncertain due to ranked-choice voting, delayed results, and a confusing ballot featuring two candidates named Dan Sullivan; the Trump Justice Department has filed a lawsuit to block certification of results if voter confusion affects incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s outcome, potentially delaying Senate control decisions.
• Despite Democrats’ low favorability ratings—only 28% satisfaction compared to 36% for Republicans—this unpopularity is largely among Democratic voters themselves, who are still expected to turn out in force to vote against the current Republican administration in the midterms, making Democratic unpopularity less critical to election outcomes.
• The newsletter warns of the dangers of fake polling data after the exposure of Wedgewood Polls, a fraudulent outfit that fabricated numbers potentially influencing races and betting markets, highlighting the need for skepticism toward unverified polling sources.
• Other notable political developments include a misleading South Carolina ad by Sen. Tim Scott attacking a Democratic opponent over transgender issues, and a contentious Maryland ballot question aiming to ease gerrymandering, which currently faces significant voter opposition.