Vladimir Putin Is Heading For A Fall

Key Points:

• Ukrainian drone strikes have severely disrupted fuel supplies to Crimea, with the Kerch bridge remaining the last critical but vulnerable fuel conduit, making a large-scale strike on fuel convoys imminent according to Ukrainian intelligence sources.
• Internal dissent within Russia is growing, exemplified by military blogger Aleksandr Lunin’s calls for mutiny and soldiers threatening their officers, alongside public discontent over forced conscription and fuel shortages, signaling cracks in Putin’s control.
• Historically, Russia’s regime changes have followed disastrous foreign military campaigns, and the ongoing Ukraine conflict is intensifying elite fears and potential mutinies within Putin’s inner circle, which could precede broader military unrest.
• Putin’s security apparatus is fragmented among competing forces loyal to different leaders, raising the risk of internal conflict or civil war among these factions as his grip weakens.
• The recent unexplained death of Sergei Ivanov, a close Putin ally and potential successor, underscores the perilous environment at the top, with multiple scenarios for Putin’s removal ranging from assassination to a show trial, and external pressures from China could also hasten his downfall within the next three years.