Vulcan woes will "absolutely" be a factor in Pentagon's next rocket competition

Key Points:

• The US Space Force is grappling with the second grounding of United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Vulcan rocket in under two years due to repeated solid rocket booster nozzle failures, which has raised concerns about the rocket's reliability and influenced future Pentagon launch service procurement decisions.
• Despite a backlog of nearly 70 launches, Vulcan has only flown four times since January 2024, with two flights experiencing booster nozzle malfunctions, though both missions still reached their targeted orbits.
• The Space Force has shifted several critical launches, including GPS navigation satellites, from Vulcan to SpaceX's Falcon 9, highlighting a move toward diversifying launch providers to mitigate risk and maintain mission readiness.
• ULA and Northrop Grumman are investigating the booster nozzle failures, with plans for a new nozzle test and recovery of failed boosters, but Vulcan is unlikely to resume government missions until the root cause is resolved and corrective actions are implemented.
• Looking ahead to the next National Security Space Launch (NSSL) contract competition in 2028, the Space Force aims to evaluate current and emerging launch providers, including Blue Origin’s New Glenn and various new rockets, while the future of Vulcan remains uncertain amid growing competition.