Warm, wet winter in store for California. Here's what to know.

Key Points:

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a warm and wet winter for California from December through February, influenced by a strong El Niño event expected to bring stormier weather to the southern U.S.
• California has a 50% to 60% chance of above-normal precipitation from the Bay Area southward, with lower probabilities in northern regions; temperatures are expected to be warm in Northern California and parts of the southern coast, while southernmost areas remain uncertain.
• Warmer temperatures could cause precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow at lower elevations, though higher elevations may still build significant snowpack.
• Climate scientist Daniel Swain estimates a greater than 90% chance of a wetter-than-average winter statewide, with El Niño's peak impacts likely occurring from December through March 2027.
• Early autumn months like October and November may show variable storm activity with little predictive signal, but this period does not affect the high likelihood of a wet winter ahead.