'We’ve been free-riding off Beijing in a weird way' Trump has China to thank for limiting oil prices

Key Points:

• Six months into the Iran conflict initiated by President Trump, oil prices have remained volatile but have not doubled as initially feared, partly due to China’s strategic energy management.
• China’s large oil stockpile, built over years to about 1.4 billion barrels, and its shift toward electric vehicles allowed it to sharply reduce crude imports, easing global oil demand and moderating price spikes.
• Recent disruptions, including attacks on Saudi pipelines and control of strategic islands by Iran-backed Houthis, continue to threaten oil supply routes, keeping the market tense with potential for significant price increases.
• Despite ongoing tensions, Trump has maintained a cautious public stance on differences with China over Iran, with upcoming talks between Trump and Xi Jinping expected to address the conflict but with limited prospects for major breakthroughs.
• Analysts credit China’s measured response and use of reserves as a key factor in preventing worst-case oil price scenarios, highlighting Beijing’s energy self-reliance strategy as a successful element of its broader economic planning.