What experts say about the risks of U.S. seizing Iran's Kharg Island

pbs.org • March 31, 2026 • nation

Key Points:

Experts warn that seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, could psychologically impact Iran but would put U.S. troops at significant risk due to its proximity to the Iranian mainland and potential for missile and drone attacks.
Iran and its proxies might escalate retaliation if Kharg Island is seized, including mining the Strait of Hormuz and launching drone strikes across the Arabian Peninsula, potentially disrupting global energy markets and economies.
President Trump has suggested the possibility of U.S. forces taking Kharg Island but acknowledged it would require a sustained presence; however, officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasize diplomacy and suggest ground troops may not be necessary.
The U.S. has already targeted critical infrastructure on Kharg Island through airstrikes, aiming to reduce Iran's oil revenue, but experts believe control of the island alone would not force Iran to capitulate or significantly alter its nuclear ambitions.
Military analysts advocate for a naval blockade or quarantine of Iranian oil shipments as a safer alternative to ground operations or destroying infrastructure, to limit Iran’s oil exports while minimizing risks to U.S. personnel and avoiding long-term economic damage to the Iranian populace.

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