What is the ‘Thucydides trap’ Xi warned Trump about? Lessons from an ancient war between Athens and Sparta

Key Points:

• During a recent meeting in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping asked US President Donald Trump if the two countries could avoid the “Thucydides trap,” a concept describing how rising and established powers may drift toward war due to mutual anxieties.
• The term “Thucydides trap” originates from the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, where Sparta’s fear of Athens’ growing power led to conflict; however, scholars argue that Sparta’s concerns were justified due to Athens’ aggressive expansion and alliance shifts.
• Historically, while Sparta won the Peloponnesian War, its subsequent overexpansion led to its downfall, whereas Athens survived by scaling back ambitions and focusing on regional power, illustrating the long-term consequences of superpower rivalry.
• The lessons for US-China relations suggest that attempts by an established superpower to suppress a rising one can be costly, and that strategic accommodation or focusing on core regional interests might better preserve stability and influence.