What next for the junta after shock of rebel offensive?

Key Points:

• Coordinated attacks by the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda-linked JNIM group in Mali resulted in the assassination of the defence minister and the recapture of northern territory, including Kidal, causing shock across West Africa.
• The military junta led by Col Assimi Goïta faces a critical period as it attempts a counter-offensive; the death of Defence Minister Sadio Camara, a key figure in coordinating with Russian forces, may weaken military coordination and relations with Moscow.
• Mali's junta may continue to rely on Russian support but could seek new military partnerships, potentially with Turkey and the US, as Russia's reputation has been damaged by recent security failures.
• The crisis has intensified pressure on the junta, raising the possibility of another coup or a takeover by the FLA-JNIM alliance, though internal tensions between nationalist separatists and Islamist militants could complicate governance.
• The outcome of the conflict will significantly impact Mali's political future and regional stability, with the potential for prolonged conflict if armed groups sustain their advance and the junta struggles to maintain control.