What our final poll before Election Day says about midterms and Trump

Key Points:

• Democrats maintain a consistent lead in the midterm race, holding a 10-point advantage among registered voters, with early voting favoring them significantly as 68% of those who have voted support Democrats.
• Voter enthusiasm is higher among Democrats, especially the very enthusiastic voters (71% vs. 61% for Republicans), while Republicans are relying more on Election Day turnout, with half planning to vote in person on November 3.
• President Trump’s strategy to nationalize the midterms around his candidacy is met with mixed reactions; 44% of likely voters say their vote is against Trump, while only 21% say it is for him, and his overall approval remains low at 40%.
• Key issues for voters include the cost of living (34%) and preserving democracy (33%), with Democrats prioritizing democracy and Republicans focusing more on the economy and immigration; economic concerns are driving much of the Democratic advantage.
• Despite Trump’s claims of election fraud, most voters (over 75%) trust their local election processes, and the share of voters believing losing candidates should accept results has increased, suggesting limited impact of Trump’s election alarmism on broader voter confidence.