What's behind Hamas's threat, and can it strike Israel? ‘The capabilities are there’

Key Points:

• Senior Israeli officials assess that Hamas retains the military capabilities to carry out attacks similar in nature, though not scale, to the October 7, 2023 assault, including strikes on military outposts, abductions, and infiltration of Israeli communities.
• Hamas has issued a direct threat of renewed attacks inside Israel, the West Bank, and abroad, signaling preparation for another confrontation rather than mere political posturing, with increased weapon stockpiling and military presence in civilian areas.
• Despite significant losses to its military infrastructure and rocket arsenal, Hamas maintains tens of thousands of fighters, continues recruitment, and controls Gaza’s civilian administration, while Israeli intelligence reports Hamas distributing weapons to civilians and openly exercising authority.
• Israeli officials believe Hamas is exploiting political timelines, such as upcoming Israeli and U.S. elections, to strengthen its position and is unlikely to voluntarily disarm, with the IDF expecting a future ground operation to dismantle remaining Hamas military capabilities.
• Israel faces a complex challenge in restoring commercial goods to Gaza without financially empowering Hamas, as the organization reportedly controls taxation and revenue collection from merchants, complicating efforts to support Gaza’s civilian population while limiting Hamas’s financial and military resurgence.