When Will The Axial Seamount Erupt?
IFLScience••science
Key Points:
- Scientists initially forecasted an eruption of Axial Seamount in 2025 based on the volcano's inflation levels surpassing those before its last eruption in 2015, but the eruption has not occurred as expected.
- Updated data indicate the inflation rate is slower than anticipated, suggesting the volcano may not reach the critical threshold for eruption until mid-to-late 2026, leading to a revised forecast window.
- Despite significant inflation, the expected increase in seismic activity that typically precedes an eruption has not materialized, casting doubt on the reliability of inflation as a sole eruption predictor.
- Researchers are exploring additional factors, including tidal forces from the Sun and Moon, which may influence eruption timing, though definitive conclusions require further eruptions
