Why is Canada’s PM Carney not ruling out a possible war with the US

Key Points:

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged the remote possibility of a US military attack on Canada, describing it as an "extreme tail risk" that requires risk management despite its low probability.
• Tensions between Canada and the US have escalated due to ongoing trade wars, including tariffs imposed by the US on Canadian goods, and provocative actions by former President Trump, such as suggesting Canada become the 51st US state and renaming Lake Ontario "Lake America."
• In response to these tensions, Canada is seeking to reduce its economic and security dependence on the US by reconsidering military purchases, diversifying alliances with the EU and UK, and applying to join European military coalitions.
• Experts agree a US military attack on Canada is highly unlikely and would be disastrous for American global interests, but Canadians remain concerned about sovereignty amid unpredictable US foreign policy under Trump.
• Despite strained relations, Carney maintains open communication with Trump and remains willing to negotiate trade agreements, though there is mutual distrust due to the unpredictability of the US administration.