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Why Mary Peltola is on track to win in Alaska, even if ranked choice ballots come into play
NBC News • • general
Key Points:
- Democratic challenger Mary Peltola currently leads Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan by 3.7 percentage points in Alaska's Senate race, with 96% of votes counted, making her likely to win either outright or through ranked choice voting.
- Alaska's final mail absentee ballots are due by November 18, the same day ranked choice tabulation would occur if no candidate surpasses 50%, potentially delaying the final result.
- For Sullivan to win, he would need to secure about 92% of the remaining first-choice votes or around 93% of redistributed ranked choice votes, both of which are highly improbable based on recent voting patterns.
- A significant portion of ballots for third-party candidates are "exhausted" in the ranked choice process because voters did not rank either Peltola or Sullivan next, limiting Sullivan's potential to close the gap.
- Given current vote distributions and exhaustion rates, it is mathematically unlikely for Sullivan to overcome Peltola's lead through ranked choice voting, with the NBC News Decision Desk awaiting remaining ballots to confirm the final projection.
