Why new war in Ethiopia’s Tigray threatens to trigger wider conflict

Key Points:

• Regional forces in Ethiopia's Tigray region seized three airports and engaged federal troops, marking a major offensive that disrupts the fragile peace deal ending the 2020-2022 conflict between the TPLF and federal forces.
• The Pretoria Agreement peace process has been strained by internal TPLF splits and the group's alliance with six other armed Ethiopian factions aiming to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
• Eritrea's role is critical, with allegations of its financial support to the TPLF-led alliance, though Eritrea denies these claims; historic tensions persist over access to the Red Sea port of Assab, vital for Ethiopia's economic security.
• The conflict risks escalating into a broader regional war amid volatile conditions in the Horn of Africa, including Sudan's civil war, tensions over the Nile, and Middle East geopolitical spillover.
• Ethiopia faces accusations of backing Sudan's Rapid Support Forces, aligned with the UAE, while Eritrea maintains closer ties with Sudan and Egypt, complicating regional alliances and rivalries.