Why The War in Iran Could Trigger the Worst Global Food Crisis Since the 1970s

Key Points:

• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, is causing a severe global fertilizer shortage by disrupting shipments of natural gas-derived nitrogen fertilizers essential for modern agriculture.
• Fertilizer prices, especially urea and ammonia, have surged dramatically, pushing food production costs higher and threatening food security worldwide, particularly in poorer countries reliant on these inputs.
• The U.S. and other major agricultural producers face steep input cost increases, forcing farmers into difficult decisions that could reduce crop yields and exacerbate food price inflation.
• This crisis amplifies geopolitical power for fertilizer-exporting nations like Russia and Belarus, while climate change and biofuel policies further strain the global food system.
• Long-term solutions such as green ammonia production and more sustainable farming practices are possible but require significant investment and political will to prevent future crises.