Why this year's Atlantic hurricane season could produce fewer big storms
BBC • • general
Key Points:
- NOAA forecasts the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to be less active than normal, with a 55% chance of below-average activity, expecting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.
- The anticipated lower activity is largely attributed to a developing strong El Niño, which increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, disrupting storm formation despite warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.
- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with an average season producing 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes based on data from 1991-2020.
- NOAA emphasizes uncertainty remains, noting that even below-average seasons can produce devastating storms, citing Hurricane Betsy (1965) and Hurricane Andrew (1992) as examples.
- A separate forecast from Colorado State University also predicts a below-average 2026 season, estimating 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, contrasting with NOAA’s more active forecast for the 2025 season.