Why Trump can’t just declare victory in Iran

Key Points:

• President Donald Trump signals a desire to end the war in Iran soon and claims the U.S. has already won, but an actual peace deal remains unlikely due to Iran's strong regional retaliation and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The U.S. has proposed a 15-point peace plan including Iran surrendering enriched uranium and missile limits, which Iran has rejected, offering its own five-point proposal demanding war reparations; early maximalist demands suggest negotiations may just be starting.
• Iran’s intensified response, especially its disruption of global oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, complicates efforts to end the conflict, as Iran aims to impose significant costs on the U.S. and its allies while facing diplomatic pressure from major partners like China.
• Key U.S. allies, including Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Gulf Arab leaders, reportedly urge Trump to continue the war to weaken Iran’s military capabilities and reset regional power dynamics, contrasting with Trump’s mixed signals about ending the conflict.
• Despite market concerns and rising energy costs, Trump may lack urgency to end the war, possibly influenced by his consumption of selective military highlights and a history of declaring victory quickly, though the complexity and stakes of this conflict present a unique challenge.