Will the Iran war end Strait of Hormuz oil supremacy?
Key Points:
- The Strait of Hormuz has been a critical and vulnerable chokepoint for global oil supply, especially highlighted during the Iran-Iraq war and recently during the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which disrupted about 20% of the world's energy supply.
- In response, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed pipelines bypassing the strait, with Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and the UAE's Habshan–Fujairah pipeline already operating at high capacity.
- There are ongoing plans to expand these bypass routes and build new pipelines to reduce dependency on Hormuz, though challenges remain for countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar due to geographical and political complexities.
- Iraq is advancing western pipeline projects to Turkey and possibly Jordan or Oman to diversify export routes, supported by international organizations like the IEA to enhance regional energy security.
- Gulf countries are also investing in rail and road networks to improve freight transport and reduce reliance on vulnerable maritime routes, with significant financial resources available but political will needed to fully realize these infrastructure projects.