Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race Moves to Leans Democratic After the Establishment’s Great Escape; Other Primary Takeaways; Rating Changes in Montana and Ohio

Key Points:

• Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated far-left state Rep. Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, shifting the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic for the fall general election.
• Crowley's victory, aided by strong support in Milwaukee suburbs and key counties like Waukesha, positions Democrats as modest favorites to retain the governorship against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, a House Freedom Caucus member with Trump-aligned views.
• In South Carolina, appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) leads Rep. Ralph Norman (R) in a primary runoff for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat, while Minnesota’s progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won her primary and will face a Republican challenger in a likely Democratic Senate race.
• Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin (D) defeated long-serving Rep. John Larson (D, CT-1) in a primary, marking the 11th House incumbent to lose a primary this year, highlighting a trend of turnover in congressional seats.
• Montana’s open Senate race moves toward Republicans as former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme (R) leads amid a three-way contest with independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, prompting the race rating to shift from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.