Without Crimea, Russia will lose the war - and Putin’s grip on it is slipping

Key Points:

• Crimea, long a symbol of Putin's ambition to restore Russian power, is now facing significant challenges, including a state of emergency, fuel shortages, power disruptions, and civilian unrest, marking a major setback for the Kremlin.
• Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have increasingly penetrated deep into Russian territory, including Crimea and Moscow, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's air defenses and disrupting critical supply routes.
• The strategic importance of Crimea as a logistical hub for Russian military operations in southern Ukraine is under threat, with Ukrainian forces targeting key infrastructure like the Kerch bridge, potentially undermining Russia's military effectiveness.
• Western military support has bolstered Ukraine's resistance, altering the conflict's trajectory and exposing Putin's miscalculation of Western resolve, while his political position appears more vulnerable than ever since the start of the invasion.
• Crimea's current instability may symbolize the broader decline of Putin's ambitions, with the prolonged conflict imposing severe military, economic, and social costs that will challenge any future Russian leadership.