WSJ: The leader Xi Jinping once called his ‘role model’ is now Beijing’s supplicant, and China is making Putin wait for the gas deal Moscow badly needs - Meduza

Key Points:

• Over more than four years of war and economic isolation, Russia's relationship with China has shifted from near-equal partners to one where Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, is a junior partner reliant on China’s leverage, especially in energy deals like the stalled Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.
• China continues to support Russia economically and militarily despite tensions, buying discounted Russian oil and supplying critical defense components, while carefully maintaining public respect for Putin to avoid fracturing the alliance as the senior partner.
• The partnership is fundamentally based on shared opposition to the U.S.-led order rather than deep cultural or value alignment, leading to strains such as Chinese goods dominating Russian markets and disagreements over regional influence, notably regarding North Korea.
• China holds significant economic leverage, with nearly 40% of Russia’s foreign trade tied to China compared to less than 4% of China’s trade with Russia, allowing Beijing to delay pipeline agreements and push Russia toward greater dependence on Chinese financial and regional institutions.
• Beijing is strategically cultivating ties within Russia beyond Putin and aims to position Russia as a highly dependent partner, potentially transforming it into a state heavily influenced by China’s model and interests in the long term.