Yes, Russia Is Losing the War in Ukraine

Key Points:

• Since late 2023, despite widespread predictions of Ukraine’s defeat, by spring 2026 Ukraine has reversed the narrative with significant military successes, including operations that could lead to the recapture of Crimea.
• Ukraine’s drone warfare has been highly effective, targeting Russian supply routes like the “Novorossiya” highway and striking deep into Russian territory, severely disrupting logistics and energy infrastructure.
• Russian ground offensives have stalled, with Russian troops failing to make gains while Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaim territory; however, Russian President Putin remains publicly optimistic, likely based on exaggerated military reports.
• Ukraine’s resilience is notable given strained U.S. support since early 2025, with interruptions in arms and intelligence sharing, while Russia faces manpower shortages and economic strain, risking renewed unpopular mobilization.
• Despite Ukraine’s gains, risks remain due to potential Russian terror attacks on urban centers and Ukraine’s depleting air defense resources; meanwhile, the U.S. administration’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense appears uncertain, raising concerns about future support.