6 Players Experts Do Not Draft (2026)

Key Points:

• Experts advise caution in drafting Matthew Stafford due to his unsustainably high touchdown rate last season and reliance on an aging, injury-prone receiving corps, making a repeat of his top QB1 performance unlikely in 2026.
• Alec Pierce is a risky pick because of ongoing ankle issues and the addition of Keenan Allen, which complicate his target share and effectiveness in the Colts' offense despite his strong efficiency metrics last year.
• Rashee Rice's off-field legal troubles, recent knee surgery, and a screen game potentially shared with RB Kenneth Walker III make him a less attractive option at his current ADP of WR12.
• Brian Thomas Jr. showed a significant drop in production and efficiency in his second year, compounded by injuries and increased competition for targets in Jacksonville, leading experts to avoid betting on a bounce-back season.
• Tight ends Jake Ferguson and Mark Andrews are both considered overvalued; Ferguson faces stiff competition with key receivers returning healthy, while Andrews shows clear signs of decline in production, efficiency, and training camp performance.