A errant SpaceX rocket booster is going to smash into the moon
Boing Boing • • science
Key Points:
- On August 5, 2026, a SpaceX rocket booster, designated 2025-010D, is expected to crash into the Moon at a speed of 5,400 miles per hour after failing to burn up and instead entering Earth orbit.
- Astronomer Bill Gray used his own software to precisely calculate the time and location of the impact, factoring in gravitational forces and the subtle but cumulative effect of solar radiation pressure on the booster.
- Gray previously predicted the 2022 lunar crash of China's Chang'e 5-T1 booster, which was initially misidentified due to confusion from Chinese authorities; similarly, the upcoming SpaceX booster impact is unlikely to be visible from Earth despite occurring on the Moon's near side.
- While no visible debris is expected from the collision, confirmation will likely come from photographs taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, replicating the method used to verify the Chang'e booster crash.
