A quiet storm's brewing -and it could change everything before the midterms

Key Points:

• President Donald Trump has taken steps to address high gasoline prices ahead of the midterm elections, including efforts to increase crude oil supply from Venezuela and exempt some refineries from renewable fuel mandates, but these measures have yet to significantly lower prices.
• Gasoline prices remain elevated due to limited refining capacity, with U.S. refineries operating near maximum capacity and many international refineries offline due to conflicts and attacks, causing a historic spike in the "crack spread" and high profits for oil companies.
• The Trump administration's push to revive Venezuela’s oil production involves easing sanctions and supporting private companies, but the heavy crude is difficult to refine, and any increased output is unlikely to impact U.S. gasoline prices in the short term.
• The Environmental Protection Agency's recent waivers on ethanol blending requirements aim to reduce costs for refiners, but face opposition from biofuel supporters and may have only a marginal effect on fuel prices amid persistently high crude oil costs.
• Despite these efforts, gasoline prices remain about $1.50 higher than before the Iran conflict, and potential disruptions from Gulf of Mexico hurricanes pose additional risks to refinery operations ahead of the elections, which could negatively affect Republican prospects.