A tale of two midterm election voter turnout trends in the South : NPR

Key Points:

• Democratic victories in the South during the 2026 midterms were driven by higher voter turnout in counties that supported Kamala Harris in 2024, with these areas experiencing a smaller decline in participation compared to counties that backed Donald Trump.
• In six southern states analyzed (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina), turnout dropped 19% in Harris-won counties versus 26% in Trump-won counties, contributing to Democrats flipping Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Mississippi.
• Increased Black voter participation, partly motivated by changes to voting rights laws and redistricting, played a significant role, with majority-Black counties showing higher turnout and some recording increased Democratic votes compared to 2024.
• Republican voter turnout saw a sharp decline, especially in North Carolina where GOP votes fell by approximately 43%, with no county matching Trump's 2024 vote totals and major urban areas experiencing the largest drop-offs.
• Democratic Senate candidates outperformed Harris in many counties, while Republican nominees garnered substantially fewer votes than Trump, highlighting differential turnout as a key factor in the South's political shifts during the midterms.