After blocking Hormuz, Iran signals it could ramp up pressure and shut Red Sea gateway, too

Key Points:

• Iran is signaling a potential escalation by using its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, thereby risking disruption of global energy supplies alongside the already blocked Strait of Hormuz.
• A senior Houthi official warned that if Saudi attacks on Yemen continue, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be closed, potentially pushing oil prices to $200 a barrel, signaling Tehran’s intent to pressure Washington by threatening two vital maritime routes simultaneously.
• Analysts view Iran’s strategy as expanding the conflict beyond a bilateral confrontation with the US to a broader threat against global trade and energy security, with concerns about gradual escalation ("mission creep") rather than immediate full-scale war.
• The Houthis have already demonstrated their capability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, prompting US and British military responses and forcing commercial vessels to reroute, increasing transport costs and economic pressure.
• Gulf states are increasingly skeptical about diplomacy with Iran, considering the high regional costs of conflict, but also wary of Iran’s growing influence; any Houthi actions against Bab el-Mandeb could provoke significant military retaliation from the US and its allies.