Are ships through more willing to defy Iran or the US? What the data shows

Key Points:

• The Strait of Hormuz remains a contested waterway with the US and Iran each claiming control; President Trump insists the US military controls traffic and may seek territorial control, while Iran demands approval for all ship transits.
• Maritime data shows most vessels use "dark" or unclassified routes, turning off transponders to avoid targeting amid ongoing threats and attacks by both sides; 21 oil and gas ships openly used the Iranian route versus only two on the Omani route favored by the US.
• Despite the US naval blockade, a significant portion of ships openly transit via the Iranian route, indicating greater fear of offending Tehran than the US; experts say Iran still holds substantial control but its influence is challenged by alternative logistics and regional security measures.
• The strait is vital for global energy supplies, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG passing through it; recent conflicts and blockades have caused global energy shortages and volatile oil prices, underscoring the strait's strategic importance in the Iran war and peace negotiations.
• The ongoing tensions and use of covert shipping tactics complicate clear control of the strait, with Iran maintaining leverage but facing challenges from US naval actions and alternative shipping routes that undermine its absolute dominance.