As NATO meets, Putin is weighing his options in Ukraine, and further afield

Key Points:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a precarious position as his war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, severely impacting Russia's economy and military capacity while Ukraine gains confidence and support from NATO allies.
• There is growing concern that Russia might escalate the conflict by opening a new front in Europe, with warnings of possible limited attacks on NATO members such as Poland, Estonia, Denmark, and Norway through hybrid warfare tactics.
• Despite Russia's weakened geopolitical and military state—relying on external support and struggling with resource shortages—its government maintains strong internal propaganda and war mobilization efforts, sustaining a narrative of readiness and resilience.
• Putin may see escalating conflict with NATO as a way to justify broader mobilization and frame the war as an existential battle, but practical limitations and the risk of provoking a full-scale NATO response constrain his options.
• Historically, Russia has tested Western resolve through covert and hybrid tactics without triggering major conflicts, and Putin’s long-term leadership style suggests he may avoid escalating the war further to preserve his rule.