As Putin edges towards mobilization, Russian reservists are already panicking

Key Points:

• Russia's United Russia party won nearly 58% of the parliamentary vote, but attention now turns to whether and how the Kremlin will initiate a new military mobilization to sustain its war efforts in Ukraine.
• Ukraine warns that Russia plans to mobilize around 300,000 personnel annually in 2026 and 2027, in addition to recruiting roughly 400,000 people yearly to replenish forces depleted by heavy casualties estimated at 1.6 million since the invasion began.
• Unlike the large-scale mobilization backlash in 2022, Russia is expected to pursue a more fragmented recruitment strategy combining pressure on reservists, contract recruitment, and coercive measures without officially declaring mobilization.
• Active reservists face increasing summonses and pressure, while new electronic summons enforcement and raids signal a shift toward more coercive recruitment tactics, potentially expanding to unemployed men and other groups.
• Ukraine is also under significant manpower strain but aims to counter Russia’s numerical advantage by advancing technology, including drones, ballistic missiles, and autonomous systems, emphasizing a technological edge over sheer troop numbers.