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Biggest Clue In US-Iran Conflict Is 'The Dog That Hasn't Barked,' Says War College's Jacob Stoil
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty • • nation
Key Points:
- Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including limited strikes and retaliations, reflect calibrated actions rather than an escalation toward all-out regional war, with both sides exercising restraint.
- Iran is leveraging missiles, drones, proxy forces, and information warfare rather than conventional military power, aiming to increase political leverage while avoiding direct large-scale conflict.
- A key aspect of Iran's strategy involves exerting maritime pressure in the Strait of Hormuz to normalize its disruptive actions and gain leverage in negotiations.
- Information warfare plays a central role for Iran, aiming to raise the political and economic costs of conflict for the US and undermine American public support.
- Analysts should monitor violence and information operations as forms of negotiation, watching for shifts in red lines or escalation indicators that could signal a move toward broader conflict or renewed talks.
