Bond market selloff rumbles on ahead of Trump and XI talks
Key Points:
- Global financial markets remain unsettled due to concerns over the Iran conflict and inflation, triggering the sharpest selloff in US Treasuries and benchmark government bonds since last year's Liberation Day turmoil.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield reached a post-financial-crisis high of 5.145%, with similar yield spikes in Europe and Japan, driven by strong PMI data, weak US bond sales, and hawkish central bank signals.
- Rising oil prices above $105 a barrel reflect growing doubts about a US-Iran deal, with Iran demanding conditions for truce talks and maintaining a defiant stance against US sanctions and naval blockades.
- The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to focus on extending the 11-month trade truce, with no major breakthroughs anticipated.
- The US dollar strengthened to a two-month high amid rising Treasury yields, while markets price in a nearly 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October; upcoming economic data and Fed/ECB speeches are also being closely watched.