California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Exit from Governor Race Opens Lane for Democrat Xavier Becerra

Key Points:

• A new Emerson College Polling survey for the June 2026 California Governor primary shows Republican Steve Hilton leading with 17% support, followed closely by Republican Chad Bianco and Tom Steyer at 14% each, with Democrats Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter both at 10%.
• Since Eric Swalwell's exit from the race, Democratic support has shifted, with Tom Steyer at 20%, Xavier Becerra at 19%, and Katie Porter at 15%, while Republican votes remain split between Hilton (48%) and Bianco (40%).
• Voter priorities highlight the economy as the top issue for 41% of Californians, the highest since April 2025, followed by housing affordability (20%), threats to democracy (10%), and crime, immigration, and healthcare each at 6%.
• Demographically, men are split evenly between Hilton and Bianco with significant support for Steyer, while women’s votes are more distributed among Hilton, Becerra, Porter, Steyer, and Bianco; younger voters lean toward Steyer, while those over 50 favor Hilton.
• The poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3%, using a combination of voter files and probability-based panels, and was conducted in April 2026, sponsored by Inside California Politics/Nexstar Media Group.