Carbon emissions are down this year-but that probably won’t last

Key Points:

• A new analysis from the Global Carbon Project led by Corinne Le Quéré estimates a 0.4% decline in global fossil fuel emissions in 2026, primarily due to the war in Iran impacting oil prices rather than structural progress on climate change.
• Despite a 1.9% drop in oil emissions and slight decreases in natural gas emissions, coal emissions increased by 0.6%, and overall energy demand still grew, with electric vehicles and renewable energy sources covering nearly 70% of that demand growth.
• Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries reduced emissions while growing economically, largely due to increased adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy, which helped limit global emission growth to 0.8% annually instead of a projected 1.9%.
• Projections based on IMF GDP forecasts suggest global fossil fuel emissions will continue rising beyond 2026 unless there is accelerated deployment of clean technologies, meaning a sustained peak and decline in emissions could still be a few years away.
• The study underscores that while progress is being made, current advances in clean energy and electric vehicles are not yet sufficient to reverse global fossil fuel emission growth without additional policy and technological support.