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CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate race
CBS News • • nation
Key Points:
- The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is essentially tied, with turnout expected to be the deciding factor in the closing weeks.
- Talarico benefits from voters' economic concerns and higher perceptions of his personal character, leading among those negatively affected by rising costs and younger voters, while Paxton draws strong support from Republicans backing Trump and those favoring stricter immigration policies.
- Although Texas has more Republicans than Democrats, Talarico's path to victory depends on winning independents, gaining some GOP support, and mobilizing younger and Latino voters, who tend to favor him due to economic hardships and character perceptions.
- Paxton's support is largely driven by party loyalty and opposition to Talarico, who is viewed as "very liberal" by many, reinforcing Republican voters' preference for Paxton as a cultural and policy counterbalance.
- In the Texas governor's race, incumbent Greg Abbott holds an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa and also receives some crossover support from Talarico voters, according to the CBS News/YouGov survey conducted in October 2026.
