China sees Iran war as warning: battlefield wins don’t guarantee victory

Key Points:

• China is closely analyzing the ongoing Iran war to extract lessons on US military performance and the challenges posed by adaptive, asymmetric warfare, particularly with an eye toward potential conflict over Taiwan.
• The conflict highlights the US military's advanced offensive capabilities but also reveals vulnerabilities in missile defenses, as Iran has used relatively low-cost drones and ballistic missiles to penetrate them and disrupt strategic routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
• Chinese experts emphasize the need to strengthen defensive measures and recognize that battlefield success does not guarantee political outcomes, warning against overestimating offensive power or underestimating the complexity of modern warfare.
• Taiwan is a focal point for applying these lessons, with concerns over China's growing drone capabilities and the island's current inadequate counter-drone defenses, prompting calls for increased drone production and investment in military readiness.
• The war underscores the importance of combat experience, with the US benefiting from decades of operational knowledge, while China’s lack of recent combat raises questions about its ability to adapt under fire, reinforcing that technological superiority alone is insufficient in modern conflicts.