China’s EV Transition Is Four Different Transitions

Key Points:

• China has largely completed the first electrification cycle for urban buses, with nearly all new buses now electric and many cities focusing on replacing older electric buses rather than diesel ones.
• Different transport segments in China are at varying stages of electrification: passenger cars are mainstream with over half of new sales electric in 2025, heavy trucks are rapidly growing with 29% market share, while intercity coaches lag due to competition from extensive high-speed rail networks.
• The economics and infrastructure needs differ significantly across vehicle types, making a single national EV adoption rate misleading; buses, cars, trucks, and coaches each follow distinct electrification paths based on their operational characteristics.
• Policymakers should focus on supporting electrification in transport segments where vehicle use patterns, economics, and infrastructure align, such as urban buses and high-utilization commercial fleets, rather than applying uniform subsidies across all categories.
• China's experience highlights that mature EV adoption will involve multiple, sector-specific transitions rather than a single, uniform growth curve, emphasizing the importance of tailored strategies for different transport modes.