CNN Data Guru Makes Stunning Call on Trump’s Nemesis

Key Points:

• James Talarico, a 37-year-old Democrat, is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas' Senate race, with a New York Times/Siena University poll showing Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 45%.
• CNN data analyst Harry Enten projects that if Talarico wins, Democrats have a 78% chance of gaining control of the Senate, as Texas is one of the key seats needed to flip.
• Despite Republicans' massive outside spending advantage ($167 million vs. $6.8 million), Talarico outspends Paxton significantly on advertising ($31 million to $352,000), boosting his chances of victory to 70%.
• Paxton was secretly recorded criticizing former President Trump and blaming a failed midterm convention for hurting Republican numbers, which may be impacting his campaign negatively.
• Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton's soon-to-be ex-wife and a Texas state senator, released a GOP-backed ad urging voters to support Republicans to maintain control of Texas, without mentioning her estranged husband by name.