CNN’s 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms

Key Points:

• Democrats are within reach of winning the Senate majority, needing to flip four Republican-held seats while defending all their own, with many key races in traditionally red states now competitive.
• Republicans are heavily outspending Democrats in the 11 most competitive Senate races, fueled by President Trump’s political network and major donors like Elon Musk, particularly in Texas.
• Key battleground states include North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Maine, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Georgia, with varying dynamics such as shifting voter coalitions, candidate controversies, and early voting trends.
• Some races feature unique factors: Alaska’s ranked-choice voting and ballot confusion, Michigan’s cross-party endorsements, and Texas’s large early voting turnout with strong minority support for Democrats.
• Despite some competitive races, flips in states like Nebraska, Mississippi, and Minnesota remain unlikely, underscoring the unpredictability and high stakes of Tuesday’s midterm elections.