College Football Playoff 2026: Bubble Watch after Week 5

Key Points:

• Most College Football Playoff (CFP) teams enter with at least one loss due to the difficulty of going undefeated in Power 4 conferences playing nine league games; only Ohio State and Indiana were undefeated early this season.
• Florida is currently on the playoff bubble after a loss to Missouri, with other one-loss teams like Ole Miss, Oregon, USC, Utah, Texas Tech, and Tennessee also teetering between contention and needing help.
• Miami leads the ACC with a 93.2% playoff chance, while Pitt faces uncertainty after losing its starting quarterback; in the Big 12, BYU and Utah are top contenders, with Texas Tech seen as an enigma due to turnovers despite a high Strength of Record.
• Ohio State and Indiana lead the Big Ten playoff projections, with Oregon on the bubble; Alabama and Texas are front-runners in the SEC, with Missouri's recent win over Florida raising questions about their consistency.
• Notre Dame stands strong as an independent contender with a high strength of record, while Boise State leads Group of 6 teams with the best playoff chance; current projections seed Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, and Miami with first-round byes, while Boise State, Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Indiana, Florida, and BYU are set for first-round games.