CPI inflation report August 2026:
Key Points:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August, with a 12-month increase of 3.4%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI excluding food and energy climbed 0.3%, slightly above forecasts.
- Energy prices, particularly gasoline which surged 3.9%, were a major driver of inflation, contributing over one-third of the monthly CPI gain amid rising Middle East tensions.
- Shelter costs increased by 0.3%, reversing previous moderation, and transportation services along with vehicle prices also saw notable gains, indicating broad-based inflationary pressures.
- Market odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week jumped to about 90%, with traders expecting a quarter-point increase following the inflation report.
- Fed officials remain divided on policy direction, but recent comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh and rising energy costs have shifted expectations toward a rate hike to combat persistent inflation.