Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026 update
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas • • business
Key Points:
- Executives in the oil and gas industry expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels mostly between May and November 2026, with a minority anticipating recovery later than that.
- A majority of respondents (86%) believe future geopolitical disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are likely within the next five years, with 48% considering it "very likely."
- Most executives predict an increase in shipping costs from the Persian Gulf post-conflict, with 36% expecting costs to rise by more than $2 but not more than $4 per barrel.
- U.S. oil production is expected to rise moderately due to the Iran war, with 43% forecasting an increase of up to 0.25 million barrels per day in 2026 and 32% expecting a 0.25 to 0.50 million barrels per day increase in 2027.
- About two-thirds of respondents believe that at least 90% of shut-in production in the Persian Gulf will eventually return, while 59% expect their company employment levels to remain stable from December 2025 to December 2026; exploration and production firms mostly expect stable employment, whereas oilfield services firms anticipate slight increases.
